Nerdcast predictions

Hurts me to say it as a Husker fan, but I think they are a real stretch to host.  I think they need to sweep the last two series (SDSU and MSU on the schedule are RPI drags) and have a dominate overall win in the tournament (hopefully another shot at Rutgers and a face off with Illinois) to even get in the discussion. 

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Hurts me to say it as a Husker fan, but I think they are a real stretch to host.  I think they need to sweep the last two series (SDSU and MSU on the schedule are RPI drags) and have a dominate overall win in the tournament (hopefully another shot at Rutgers and a face off with Illinois) to even get in the discussion. 

Maybe the NCAA will pair #2 A&M vs #15 Nebraska?  They love creating fake storylines so Alberts & Childress vs their former teams will be something they can talk about for 3 days.

 

The forum is showing up funky and I can't edit my initial post.  When moving things around it looks like I accidentally dropped Duke (#22) who I also had in the "In the Hunt" section.  They might end up getting a host spot if 15/16 become available.  I know they're talented but they've had a few down weekends and have lost to the upper echelon teams in the ACC more often than not with series Ls vs FSU, NC State and Clemson.  Losses to William & Mary, Pitt and Campbell aren't helping either.  Should be a big series vs. UNC to end the season.

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Well, I certainly don't know how to respond to that!!

Have not had a chance to listen to the Nerdcast yet to get rationale, but there's their Top 16 this week:

1. Kentucky
2. Texas A&M
3. Tennessee
4. Clemson
5. Arkansas
6. North Carolina
7. Florida State
8. East Carolina
9. Indiana State
10. Oklahoma
11. Virginia
12. Mississippi State
13. Duke
14. Georgia
15. UC Santa Barbara
16. South Carolina

Will be interesting to listen to, they dropped Oregon State, after a winning weekend, out of their Top 16.  The Beavs finish vs. UCLA and @ Arizona, so maybe they predict some losses there.

They don't have Nebraska in, which is understandable.  They continue to be in love with Duke, admittedly a very good team.  Prior to last night's win over East Carolina, which vaulted them up to #18 in the RPI I thought they were a real stretch (either #22 or 23 I think) but the d1 team has consistently valued them high and they must predict a very strong finish for the Blue Devils @GaTech and vs. UNC.

But I digress, I shouldn't read too much into their seedings until I have a chance to listen to their logic.

Some interesting takes on the Nerdcast. 

#1 Kentucky:  It seemed they came in loaded for bear with a pre-determined desire to make Kentucky #1.  Kentucky has a lot of metrics to back that up to be sure.  Their Quad 1 wins stat was cited, and it is an interesting one, and a little misleading in this particular case I think.  It plays in to their sterling road record as well.  Quad 1 wins means a win vs. a Top25 RPI at home, Top 40 RPI at a neutral site and Top 60 on the road.  So interestingly enough Kentucky gets 3 Quad 1 wins for their sweep of lowly Auburn on the road whereas A&M get 0 Quad 1 wins for their sweep of Auburn at home.  Auburn has had a rough year and those sweeps were likely happening regardless of where they were played.  But with an Auburn RPI of 45 that is a 3 game Quad flip Kentucky vs. A&M for the same result.  That applies to their Quad 2 resume as well where road wins vs. #97 USC-Upstate will count as Quad 2 wins.  In short, Kentucky gets boosts to their Quad resume because they're a more northern school and hit the road early. I get that's how the current RPI system is designed, but with the upper echelon teams it's a little misleading I think.

It was also stated at one point that Kentucky was confident and flying high (my paraphrase) off the win over Arkansas... but they glossed over the fact that, even with the win over Arkansas, Kentucky has lost 2 of their last 3 series.  The beauty is that it'll get to play out over 2 more weeks.  If Kentucky wins the SEC then they deserve this #1.  And A&M, Clemson, Tennessee, Arkansas will all be plenty happy to avoid the dreaded 1 seed curse.

#9 Indiana State.  This seems like a multi-year reward for their consistency in the Valley.  I think this is too high and rewards one of the very bottom tier Top 8 seeds.  Who would you really want to draw in a Super?  Georgia?  or Indiana State?

#10 Oklahoma.  An up and down team with a home loss (sweep) to Lamar.  They're rewarded for winning the Big 12.  ...but Nebraska with a somewhat similar resume, in a higher  RPI conference doesn't even get mentioned? I know they're 1 game back but they'd be the favorite to finish off the season on top I'd think.  Very surprising to me.  Have no problem with leaving Nebraska out of the Top 16, but to put Oklahoma at #10 - for the reasons stated - and not even mentioning Nebraska?  I'm at a loss to explain that one.

#13 Duke is a stretch, but it's been consistent for this group all season.  I think they're overvalued here, but they get a chance to prove it the next two week against a bubbly team in GaTech and then a Top 8 seed in UNC.  This will settle itself over the next 10 days.

- Nebraska:  See Oklahoma above

- Oregon State:  They were talked about in the 10-11 spot, and then ultimately were left out of the Top 16 all together.  I can't rationalize that drop.  On top of that I think the committee will do anything they can to have another west coast host.  Like Duke, they finish with a key series at Arizona.  If they lose that they don't deserve to host, if they win it they likely lock up a host.

 

Didn't know if I misread or misremembered but the Big12 is the #3 RPI conference, so that undercuts my point about Nebraska.  Boo.

Okay, here we go again.  Let's take a run, pre-conference tourney/post Week 13, at the Host sites... 

 

I really struggled at the 7-12 spots because none of those teams really deserve to be above 11 or 12 in my mind.  ...but someone has to be.

 

1. Kentucky 

• #1 with a bullet. #1 RPI, #1 in Q1 wins by a mile.

2. Tennessee

• Might be a bit of a reach at #6 RPI, but 13-9 Q1 is the 2nd most wins

3. Arkansas

• 3/5 are dependent upon the winner of this week's series. WooPig is 2 games better in Q1, 2 games worse in Q2

4. North Carolina

• Very little flash but #5 RPI.  Only 6-7 vs Q1 may hurt them

5. Texas A&M

• Ags Q1 record bludgeoned the last 2 weeks dropping 4 of 6 on the road. Still #2 RPI. Struggling on the road recently but not getting swept.  Need to answer the bell vs. Arkansas

6. Clemson

• Got swept at a bad time by a very talented team that seems to be getting hot. All the metrics are still there for a Top 8 seed. #7 RPI, 21-10 vs. Q1/2

7. Wake Forest

• Don't look now but Wake is getting hot.  A sweep over Uncle Clem jumps them to here.  Virtual identical record to FSU with a harder schedule. 5 teams in the ACC at 15-11/15-12 in a fight for 3rd place in the conference.

8. Oklahoma

• Big 12 champs are on a heater and even their #15 RPI can't keep them from this #8 seed. ...only because no one else has really earned it yet either. 9-5 vs. Q1 is good.  9-6 vs. Q2 less good. 4-4 vs. Q3 is awful. But I guess we'll ignore that for now.

9. Georgia

• Can't put them at #8 yet but struggled to find anyone else to deserve it.  If they put on a good show vs UF they might get there with the #3 overall RPI

10. Oregon State

• Poll monster knocking on the door of the Top 5, but RPI kitten at #14 keeps them from sneaking into the Top 8. I'm going to blame that in part on geography.  If they beat Arizona this weekend it should help their RPI and you could have them anywhere 8-10 without too much complaint from me.

• Picked a bad time to lose a series to a last place Pitt team. Very limited resume over likely tourney teams

12. Indiana State

• Host metrics galore but I cannot ignore the 3-6 vs. Q1. They don't play many top tier teams, and they don't beat them when they do.

13. East Carolina

• 0-4 week couldn't have come at a worse time.  Getting swept, even on the road, in a very down AAC is inexcusable if you want to be a national seed.

14. Mississippi State

• Could easily put UVa here, but losing 2 of 3 to Arkansas on the road is much more impressive than losing 2 of 3 to NCState at home.

15. UC-Santa Barbara

• Just keeps winning, with a 2 game lead over Irvine in the Big West.  Will 3 home games against #265 kill their host chances even if they sweep?  I'm going to say no.

16. Dallas Baptist

• Probably a stretch here but DBU has reclaimed 1st place in Conference USA and has won 10 of 11 including 5 straight.  3 games vs. MTSU should clinch the conference and probably tank their RPI enough to move them out of hosting.

 

In consideration:  Virginia, UC-Irvine, NC State, San Diego, Duke, Arizona. 

• Irvine or UCSB but not both with San Diego being an intriguing longshot for that 2nd West Coast host.  Might see one more ACC, so take your pick if any of the bottom 3-4 predicted seeds have a bad weekend.  D1 has a man crush on Duke but they're not beating the top of the conference very often.  Arizona could do some damage if they wallop Oregon State this weekend but I don't see it happening.

So this week the Nerdcast Top 16 ended up being:

1. Kentucky - same
2. Tennessee - same
3. Arkansas - same
4. Texas A&M (#5 for me)
5. North Carolina (#4)
6. Clemson - same
7. Georgia (#9)
8. Wake Forest (#7)
9. Florida St (#11)
10. Oklahoma (#8)
11. Indiana St. (#12)
12. East Carolina (#13)
13. Oregon St. (#10)
14. Mississippi State - same
15. Virginia - (NR)
16. Oklahoma St. - (NR)

All season long the d1 crew has overrated Duke and OkState in my opinion.  I said that about Duke last week when I didn't put them in the Top 16 and frankly I barely considered oSu this week.  Looking at their resume they have series losses to Sam Houston, UCF, Kansas State, as well as going 0-2 vs Dallas Baptist and a loss to Utah Tech and Mercer at home.  They have series wins against 3, maybe 4 tourney teams in OU, West Virginia, TCU and Cincinnati and three of those four were at home.  They're on a bit of a heater, but mostly against bad teams. They have a road series against a dreadful Houston so they're likely to end hot.

At the top I agreed with almost everything they did.  I had A&M behind UNC but I'm an A&M fan and am a little disgruntled at the moment.  They have Georgia with a lot of helium.  I think UGa can get there but think they need to really bludgeon Florida this year to earn that Top 8 seed.  I find it hard to see 5 SEC national seeds, but 7-10 are virtually interchangeable.

I'm shocked they didn't have OU higher given how high they threw them last week.  They swept the weekend, there was chaos above them and they didn't move at all.  Indiana State/East Carolina feel about right.  I still feel like the Beavers are undervalued in this seeding.  I know they're only 1-2 vs. Quad 1 but there's virtually no Quad 1 teams in their half of the country.  They went on the road to play Arkansas, losing a nail biter vs. Hagen Smith and then they throttle OkState.

I have not problem with Virginia, they have the resume to deserve that, but despite the agony they went through I am not a fan of them dropping UCSB out of the Top 16 this week.  As I said the Riverside RPI is brutal and a real problem.  They have to sweep or they're out for sure.  But if they end up 23-4, having gone on the road to beat Campbell and Oregon, sweeping UConn at home and winning 14 of their last 15 then I think they're a host and a deserving one, even if their RPI slides to 22ish. I think the committee will stretch a little for a West Coast host if it's within reason.