Mississippi State’s DSR is 20 and Florida’s is 28. So, is the DSR saying State should be considered the favorite going into the series this weekend? Just trying to understand the DSR.
You're understanding is correct, at least for the first game of the series. The reason we can make that assertion is the DSR rank is based on each team's win probability against an average team (shown as DSR in the rankings table). In this case, Mississippi State would be an average team 64% of the time while we project Florida to beat an average team 63% of the time.
After the initial game is played, DSR will re-rank teams based on the results of the first game. It doesn't happen often but occasionally the results from the first game will cause a shift in ranking which could cause the team favored in game 1 to be the underdog in remaining games in the series. This happened last week when FSU entered 1 and Clemson 3. After Clemson's game 1 win, Clemson jumped FSU and thus was the favorite for games 2 and 3.
Thank you. That was very helpful.
